How many electoral votes will Donald Trump win in the 2024 presidential election?
Closing Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC
The jurisdictions that Trump won in 2016 currently represent a total of 307 electoral votes, and the jurisdictions that he won in 2020 currently represent a total of 235 electoral votes (National Archives). The winner of the most votes in a jurisdiction will be considered to have won the electoral votes for that jurisdiction, and whether there are any "faithless electors" as part of the Electoral College in the 2024 presidential election is immaterial (Ballotpedia). If Trump ceases to be a candidate for president, his name will not be replaced in this question.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 235 | 15.84% | +0.11% | -3.61% | +7.24% |
| Between 235 and 269 | 53.47% | -0.20% | +2.90% | +2.19% |
| Between 270 and 307 | 26.31% | +0.11% | +0.74% | -6.39% |
| More than 307 | 4.39% | 0% | -0.02% | -3.04% |