How many electoral votes will Donald Trump win in the 2024 presidential election?

Started Jul 12, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The jurisdictions that Trump won in 2016 currently represent a total of 307 electoral votes, and the jurisdictions that he won in 2020 currently represent a total of 235 electoral votes (National Archives). The winner of the most votes in a jurisdiction will be considered to have won the electoral votes for that jurisdiction, and whether there are any "faithless electors" as part of the Electoral College in the 2024 presidential election is immaterial (Ballotpedia). If Trump ceases to be a candidate for president, his name will not be replaced in this question.

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The question closed "More than 307" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 235 11%
Between 235 and 269 46%
Between 270 and 307 33%
More than 307 10%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 166
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 163
Number of Forecasts 675
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 429
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.772031
2.
-0.731761
3.
-0.703861
4.
-0.702495
5.
-0.676113

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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