When will an application be filed with Germany's Federal Constitutional Court to declare Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, or AfD) unconstitutional?
Started
Jul 19, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Closed May 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
Various political groups in Germany are pushing for the AfD to be banned (Deutsche Welle, BBC, Le Monde). Three entities (the Bundestag, the Bundesrat, and the Federal Government) can file such an application (German Federal Constitutional Court). Local elections are scheduled for three German states (Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia) in September 2024 (German Federal Returning Officer - Election Schedule).
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 1 September 2024 | 0% | |
| Between 1 September 2024 and 31 December 2024 | 0% | |
| Between 1 January 2025 and 30 April 2025 | 0% | |
| Not before 1 May 2025 | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 54 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 173 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 187 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 508 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
