Which US presidential candidate will win the electoral vote for Maine's 2nd Congressional District?

Started Aug 19, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The 2024 race for the White House will be decided in battleground states (RealClearPolling, 270 to Win). The outcome will be determined based on which candidate wins the popular vote in the congressional district. Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that do not allocate their electoral votes solely to the winner of the statewide election (NPR).

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The question closed "The Republican Party candidate" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
The Democratic Party candidate 16%
The Republican Party candidate 84%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 53
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 163
Number of Forecasts 162
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 429
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.312923
2.
-0.312923
3.
-0.281435
4.
-0.27401
5.
-0.257459

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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