What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for December 2024?
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
The US unemployment rate began to rise in the summer of 2024, hitting a new multiyear high in July (AP, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database when first released, expected in early January 2025 (FRED). As of the launch of this question, the unemployment rate April 2024 was 3.9%.
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The question closed "At least 4.0%, but less than 4.3%" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 3.7% | 0% | |
| At least 3.7%, but less than 4.0% | 2% | |
| At least 4.0%, but less than 4.3% | 65% | |
| At least 4.3%, but less than 4.6% | 29% | |
| At least 4.6%, but less than 4.9% | 3% | |
| At least 4.9%, but less than 5.2% | 0% | |
| At least 5.2%, but less than 5.5% | 0% | |
| 5.5% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 48 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 159 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 242 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 422 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
