What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 31 December 2024?

Started Aug 30, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). On 26 August 2024, the closing value was 5,616.84.

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The question closed "At least 5,875, but less than 6,150" with a closing date of 31 December 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 4,500 0%
At least 4,500, but less than 4,775 0%
At least 4,775, but less than 5,050 0%
At least 5,050, but less than 5,325 0%
At least 5,325, but less than 5,600 0%
At least 5,600 but less than 5,875 14%
At least 5,875, but less than 6,150 84%
At least 6,150, but less than 6,425 2%
At least 6,425, but less than 6,700 0%
6,700 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 61
Average for questions older than 6 months: 183
Number of Forecasts 514
Average for questions older than 6 months: 533
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.047078
2.
-0.045044
3.
-0.039608
4.
-0.037815
5.
-0.031344

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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