Will the UN officially declare that a famine exists in any part of the Gaza Strip before 1 January 2025?

Started Sep 06, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

While some officials affiliated with the UN have stated that there is famine in the Gaza Strip, the UN has not yet officially declared that a famine exists there (AP, CBS News). For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration will not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 53
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 159
Number of Forecasts 207
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 422
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.022574
2.
-0.021781
3.
-0.02087
4.
-0.020509
5.
-0.020509

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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