Will Iran detonate a nuclear device before 1 January 2026?

Started Oct 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

With tensions between Iran and Israel at historic highs, there is worry that Iran is getting closer to becoming a nuclear-armed state (CNN, AP, MSN [Telegraph], Iran International). For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). A device that produces an explosive detonation for a subcritical test is not considered a "nuclear device" that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion (National Nuclear Security Administration).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 12.71% -0.71% -1.38%
No 87.29% +0.71% +1.38%

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