Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (Forces) of Taiwan and those of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 October 2025?

Started Oct 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

The PRC has maintained its aggressive posture toward Taiwan in 2024 (CNN, Deutsche Welle, Newsweek). For the purposes of this question, a lethal confrontation is one that results in two or more fatalities among the Forces of both sides (total, not each). In the event of ambiguity as to the status of a party to a lethal confrontation as Forces, an accusation by a UN member state other than the PRC that a pertinent party to the lethal confrontation was Forces of the relevant country will suffice. If those involved from one side are a mixture of relevant forces and putatively civilian persons, the whole group would be considered to be part of the Forces (e.g., CNN). Cyberattacks alone will not count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 9.54% 0% 0% -0.09%
No 90.46% 0% 0% +0.08%

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