How many of the largest commercial banks in the US will fail between 4 October 2024 and 6 October 2025?

Started Oct 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
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As of the launch of this question, only one US bank had failed in 2024, but concerns about stresses facing some US banks continue (Investopedia, Yahoo [Reuters], Dallas Fed). The question will be suspended on 6 October 2025 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, "the largest commercial banks in the US" are those listed in the Federal Reserve's list of "Large Commercial Banks" as of 30 June 2024 (Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks, see "June 30, 2024"). A bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcome (e.g., FDIC). The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Wachovia).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
0 61.19% 0% -4.37% -1.61%
1 16.31% 0% +0.43% -5.04%
2 or 3 18.44% 0% +2.25% +8.24%
4 or more 4.06% 0% +1.68% -1.59%

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