Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the UK have a confirmed human death from either human to human or animal to human transmission of the Marburg virus, taking place exclusively within the country, before 1 April 2025?

Started Oct 04, 2024 08:15PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

Marburg virus disease (MVD) is a filovirus which has an average fatality ratio of up to 88% (WHO - Marburg virus disease). On 8 September 2024, the first person infected with the virus in a new Rwandan outbreak died, and, as of 4 October 2024, 11 deaths in total have been reported in the country (Telegraph, AP). There are currently no available treatments or vaccines for MVD, but various vaccines are being trialed (WHO - Disease Outbreak News). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using information reported by the UK government or the BBC. Please note that no dashboard exists on MVD as of the launch of this question, but public data on a UK MVD outbreak could be provided via the United Kingdom Health Security Agency’s (UKHSA's) data dashboard (UKHSA). The transmission and death must both occur in the UK to count. For the purposes of this question, "UK" excludes overseas territories and crown dependencies.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 8.04% 0% 0% +2.21%
No 91.96% 0% 0% -2.21%

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