Will Florida voters approve a constitutional amendment establishing a right to abortion before fetal viability in the 2024 general election?

Started Oct 15, 2024 08:00AM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

While Florida has imposed a ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, voters in November 2024 will decide on a constitutional amendment protecting abortion under certain circumstances (Ballotpedia, CNN). As of the 2024 general election, Florida state constitutional amendments require approval of at least 60% (Florida Division of Elections - Constitutional Amendments/Initiatives).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No, but the amendment will receive more than 50% of the vote" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 30%
No, but the amendment will receive more than 50% of the vote 48%
No, and the amendment will not receive more than 50% of the vote 22%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 157
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 134
Number of Forecasts 335
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 307
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.473343
2.
-0.459762
3.
-0.450895
4.
-0.4412
5.
-0.404771

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username