Will the S&P 500 Index close lower by 4.0% or more in a single trading day before 31 May 2025?

Started Nov 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 03, 2025 08:00PM UTC

US equity markets performed well through the first three quarters of 2024, though various geopolitical and financial risks are concerns (MSN [Forbes], Yahoo [Bloomberg]). The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 29 May 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Percent Change"). The last time the index fell 4.0% or more in a single trading day was 13 September 2022.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 3 April 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 47%
No 53%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 58
Average for questions older than 6 months: 176
Number of Forecasts 278
Average for questions older than 6 months: 516
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.833438
2.
-0.819229
3.
-0.779027
4.
-0.774745
5.
-0.742146

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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