Will the S&P 500 Index close lower by 4.0% or more in a single trading day before 31 May 2025?
Closed Apr 03, 2025 08:00PM UTC
US equity markets performed well through the first three quarters of 2024, though various geopolitical and financial risks are concerns (MSN [Forbes], Yahoo [Bloomberg]). The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 29 May 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Percent Change"). The last time the index fell 4.0% or more in a single trading day was 13 September 2022.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 3 April 2025.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 47% | |
No | 53% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 58 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 176 | |
Number of Forecasts | 278 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 516 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |