The Economist asks:

Before 2 September 2025, will NASA announce a delay in the scheduled launch of its Artemis II mission beyond 31 December 2025?

Started Nov 20, 2024 11:00AM UTC
Closed Dec 05, 2024 06:30PM UTC

The Artemis system is NASA's planned means to return humans to the moon, with Artemis II planned to be the first crewed flight to the moon since the Apollo program (Economist, NASA - Artemis II). As of the launch of this question, Artemis II was scheduled to launch in September 2025, a delay from the original target launch planned for November 2024 (Space.com).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 5 December 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 74%
No 26%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 168
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 94
Number of Forecasts 214
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 167
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.137187
2.
-0.115853
3.
-0.115853
4.
-0.115853
5.
-0.115853

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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