Will the European Union or an EU member state confirm a case of transmitted polio in a person in the EU before 21 June 2025?
Closed Jun 21, 2025 07:01AM UTC
After vaccine-derived poliovirus was found in sewage in Germany, Poland, and Spain in the second half of 2024, there are fears of a potential outbreak in a region that was declared "polio-free" in 2002 (WHO, Euronews, Science.org, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control - Polio Dashboard). The outcome will be determined using information provided by the EU or government of an EU member state, and the question will close as of the confirmation. The mere acknowledgement of a case being reported alone will not count. A case in a resident will count so long as transmission is reportedly believed to have occurred somewhere in the EU, and whether the virus is "wild" or vaccine-derived is immaterial.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 21 June 2025.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 2% | |
No | 98% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 27 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 170 | |
Number of Forecasts | 72 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 501 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |