Will the European Union or an EU member state confirm a case of transmitted polio in a person in the EU before 21 June 2025?

Started Dec 20, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 21, 2025 07:01AM UTC
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Health  

After vaccine-derived poliovirus was found in sewage in Germany, Poland, and Spain in the second half of 2024, there are fears of a potential outbreak in a region that was declared "polio-free" in 2002 (WHO, Euronews, Science.org, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control - Polio Dashboard). The outcome will be determined using information provided by the EU or government of an EU member state, and the question will close as of the confirmation. The mere acknowledgement of a case being reported alone will not count. A case in a resident will count so long as transmission is reportedly believed to have occurred somewhere in the EU, and whether the virus is "wild" or vaccine-derived is immaterial.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 21 June 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2%
No 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 27
Average for questions older than 6 months: 170
Number of Forecasts 72
Average for questions older than 6 months: 501
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.020778
2.
-0.020778
4.
-0.020778
5.
-0.020746

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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