Which film will win the 2025 Oscar for Best Documentary Feature Film?

Started Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 02, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The 97th Academy Awards, known as the Oscars, are scheduled for 2 March 2025 (Oscars, NPR). In the event of a tie, the film with the higher box office total through and including 2 March 2025 according to Box Office Mojo would be deemed the winner.

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The question closed "No Other Land" with a closing date of 2 March 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Black Box Diaries 5%
No Other Land 69%
Porcelain War 13%
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat 2%
Sugarcane 11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 17
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 127
Number of Forecasts 42
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 292
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.068987
3.
-0.064787
4.
-0.044261
5.
-0.036916

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
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