Will Donald Trump attend Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, Russia, in 2025?

Started Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 08, 2025 04:00PM UTC

Russia has reported that it expects a "special guest" from the US for the 80th anniversary of Germany's defeat in World War II, known as Victory Day, on 9 May 2025 (Newsweek, The Moscow Times). Any physical presence in the city of Moscow on 9 May 2025 (local time) will be considered attendance.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 9 May 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 9%
No 91%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 182
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 151
Number of Forecasts 414
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 403
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.042564
2.
-0.042564
4.
-0.042484

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username