Zan-Ozimek asks:
Will Mahmoud Khalil be removed from the US before 1 May 2025?
Closed May 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Mahmoud Khalil, a Palestinian former Columbia University student, was detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on 8 March 2025 and ordered removed (aka deported) from the US, though a judge ordered that he remain in the US while court proceedings continue (ABC News, CNN, NBC News, Khalil v. Joyce). Khalil agreeing to leave the US and actually leaving the US will count.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 May 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | |
| No | 94% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 64 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 124 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 186 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 285 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
