The CFA Society Los Angeles asks

Will the S&P 500 fall 20% or more in 2017?

Started Feb 16, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

This question will close as "yes" if any end-of-day closing value of the S&P 500 is at least 20% lower than the highest recorded closing value of the index in 2017 up to that date. Outcome will be determined by comparing the end-of-day closing values reported by Bloomberg ( Bloomberg). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
The S&P 500 did not fall 20% or more in 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 661
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 2096
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.043
2.
-0.043
3.
-0.043
4.
-0.043
5.
-0.043

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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