Closing Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

The CFA Society Los Angeles asks

Will the S&P 500 fall 20% or more in 2017?

This question will close as "yes" if any end-of-day closing value of the S&P 500 is at least 20% lower than the highest recorded closing value of the index in 2017 up to that date. Outcome will be determined by comparing the end-of-day closing values reported by Bloomberg ( Bloomberg).

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If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether Egypt’s GDP growth rate for their 2016/2017 fiscal year equal or exceed 5% or on what the European Central Bank (ECB) will do with respect to the deposit rate .

Name Probability
Yes 22%

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