Will Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia leave El Salvador before 19 July 2025?

Started Apr 18, 2025 04:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 06, 2025 08:00PM UTC

The US removed Garcia, a putative member of the international criminal gang MS-13, from the country on 15 March 2025 to El Salvador, which it later asserted was due to an "administrative error" because an immigration judge in 2019 had ordered that he not be removed to El Salvador (ABC News, WUSA). The Supreme Court backed decisions made by the district court on 10 April 2025, though El Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele said on 14 April 2025 that he could not return Garcia to the US (US Supreme Court - Noem v. Garcia 10 April 2025, CNBC).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 6 June 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 18%
No 82%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 54
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 121
Number of Forecasts 151
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 280
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-1.171569
3.
-1.111569
4.
-1.050243

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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