Will Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia leave El Salvador before 19 July 2025?
Closed Jun 06, 2025 08:00PM UTC
The US removed Garcia, a putative member of the international criminal gang MS-13, from the country on 15 March 2025 to El Salvador, which it later asserted was due to an "administrative error" because an immigration judge in 2019 had ordered that he not be removed to El Salvador (ABC News, WUSA). The Supreme Court backed decisions made by the district court on 10 April 2025, though El Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele said on 14 April 2025 that he could not return Garcia to the US (US Supreme Court - Noem v. Garcia 10 April 2025, CNBC).
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 6 June 2025.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 18% | |
No | 82% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 54 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 121 | |
Number of Forecasts | 151 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 280 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |