Before 4 July 2025, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal in Ocean State Tactical, LLC v. Rhode Island regarding Rhode Island's ban on certain ammunition feeding devices for firearms?

Started May 07, 2025 04:30PM UTC
Closed Jun 02, 2025 01:30PM UTC
Challenges
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In 2022, Rhode Island imposed a ban on ammunition magazines that carry more than ten rounds, and various gun owners and a gun store sued to block the ban (Rhode Island PBS, First Circuit Decision 7 March 2024, SCOTUSblog - Ocean State Tactical v. Rhode Island). The question is only concerned with whether the US Supreme Court will agree to hear the case, and the question will close upon the issuance of an order denying certiorari (Cornell - Certiorari). An order granting certiorari, vacating a lower court's decision, and remanding again for further proceedings will count (e.g., Supreme Court - Order List 30 June 2022, see 21-1194 on page 2). If the petitioners withdraw their petition for certiorari, the question will close "No."

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 2 June 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 10%
No 90%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 15
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 121
Number of Forecasts 26
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 280
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.006492
2.
-0.006492
4.
-0.005958
5.
-0.005531

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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