The announced winner notwithstanding, what will be the highest level of accuracy achieved by an AI system in the 2025 ARC Prize artificial general intelligence competition?
Closed Nov 04, 2025 08:01AM UTC
ARC Prize, Inc. is an organization sponsoring its second competition for AI systems and measuring their accuracy using the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus for Artificial General Intelligence (ARC-AGI-2) benchmark (ARCPrize.org - ARC Prize 2025). Per ARC Prize, Inc., "Humans have collectively scored 100% in ARC," while AI systems have scored far lower (Kaggle, ARCPrize.org - ARC-AGI). The question will be suspended on 3 November 2025 and the outcome determined once the winners are announced (ARCPrize.org - Leaderboard, see "ARC-AGI-2" column under "LEADERBOARD BREAKDOWN." Please see the notes under the chart, and you can view only the ARC-AGI-2 results by clicking "ARC-AGI-2" under "DATA" immediately below the leaderboard. If a model is disqualified from the competition for any reason other than declining to fulfill the "Winner's Obligations" regarding licensing, its score will not count (Kaggle - ARC Prize 2025 Rules, The Decoder). If the organizers postpone the deadline, the closing date will be rescheduled accordingly.
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| Possible Answer | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|
| Less than 17.0% | 0% |
| At least 17.0%, but less than 20.0% | 3% |
| At least 20.0%, but less than 30.0% | 43% |
| At least 30.0%, but less than 45.0% | 32% |
| At least 45.0%, but less than 65.0% | 21% |
| At least 65.0%, but less than 85.0% | 1% |
| 85.0% or higher | 0% |