What organization's AI model will perform best in the 2025 ARC Prize artificial general intelligence competition?

Started Jul 18, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 04, 2025 08:01AM UTC
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ARC Prize, Inc. is an organization sponsoring its second competition for AI systems and measuring their accuracy using the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus for Artificial General Intelligence (ARC-AGI-2) benchmark (ARCPrize.org - ARC Prize 2025). Per ARC Prize, Inc., "Humans have collectively scored 100% in ARC," while AI systems have scored far lower (Kaggle, ARCPrize.org - ARC-AGI). The question will be suspended on 3 November 2025 and the outcome determined once the winners are announced (ARCPrize.org - Leaderboard, see "ARC-AGI-2" column under "LEADERBOARD BREAKDOWN." Please see the notes under the chart, and you can view only the ARC-AGI-2 results by clicking "ARC-AGI-2" under "DATA" immediately below the leaderboard. If a model is disqualified from the competition for any reason other than declining to fulfill the "Winner's Obligations" regarding licensing, its score will not count (Kaggle - ARC Prize 2025 Rules). If the organizers postpone the deadline, the closing date will be rescheduled accordingly. In the event of a tie, the model with the lower "Cost/Task" will be considered the winner. If there is still a tie, the answer option listed first (top to bottom) among the tied organizations will be considered the winner.

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The question closed "Another organization" with a closing date of 4 November 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Anthropic 9%
Deepseek 6%
Google 17%
Meta 3%
OpenAI 29%
xAI 9%
Another organization 28%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 23
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 136
Number of Forecasts 60
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 368
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.889188
2.
-0.581892
3.
-0.418786
4.
-0.343796
5.
-0.296161

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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