The University Forecasting Challenge asks:
What will be the closing price per pound of arabica coffee on 5 December 2025?
Closed Dec 05, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Coffee prices rose in early August 2025 amid tariff, supply, and inventory concerns (CNBC, Yahoo [Barchart]). The two main types of coffee produced commercially are arabica and robusta (AP). The question will be suspended on 4 December 2025 and the outcome determined using price data as reported in the US (your location in the world may impact how the site dates prices) as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set chart to "6M"). The closing price on 8 August 2025 was 309.35 cents, or $3.0935.
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The question closed "At least $4.00, but less than $4.40" with a closing date of 5 December 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than $2.00 | 0% | |
| At least $2.00, but less than $2.40 | 0% | |
| At least $2.40, but less than $2.80 | 0% | |
| At least $2.80, but less than $3.20 | 0% | |
| At least $3.20, but less than $3.60 | 6% | |
| At least $3.60, but less than $4.00 | 19% | |
| At least $4.00, but less than $4.40 | 72% | |
| At least $4.40, but less than $4.80 | 3% | |
| $4.80 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 70 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 287 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
