The University Forecasting Challenge asks:
What will be the value of the US Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for November 2025?
Closed Dec 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
US tariff policy, changes in tax policy, and interest rates are all impacting the used car market in the US (Yahoo [Reuters], CBT News, USA Today). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2025 and the outcome determined using Used Vehicle Value Index data for November 2025 as first reported by Manheim (Manheim, the table at the bottom of the main page will be used for resolution). The data from the monthly release, not the mid-month release, will be used for resolution. As of the launch of this question, the value of the US Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for November 2024 was 205.4.
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The question closed "At least 203.0, but less than 206.0" with a closing date of 1 December 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 197.0 | 0% | |
| At least 197.0, but less than 200.0 | 0% | |
| At least 200.0, but less than 203.0 | 9% | |
| At least 203.0, but less than 206.0 | 76% | |
| At least 206.0, but less than 209.0 | 14% | |
| At least 209.0, but less than 212.0 | 1% | |
| At least 212.0, but less than 215.0 | 0% | |
| At least 215.0, but less than 218.0 | 0% | |
| 218.0 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 42 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 167 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
