When will the Chinese Shenzhou-20 mission crew return to Earth?
Closed Nov 14, 2025 08:45AM UTC
On 5 November 2025, China announced that it was postponing the return of its Shenzhou-20 mission crew due to the suspected impact of space debris (China Manned Space [in Mandarin], Space.com, China in Space, Xinhua). The full, three-person crew must return to Earth alive to count. If an attempted return to Earth fails for any or all of the Shenzhou-20 crew, the question will close "No" as of the date of the failed attempt.
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The question closed "Before 24 November 2025" with a closing date of 14 November 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 24 November 2025 | 39% | |
| Between 24 November 2025 and 14 December 2025 | 18% | |
| Between 15 December 2025 and 11 January 2026 | 16% | |
| Between 12 January 2026 and 15 February 2026 | 15% | |
| Not before 16 February 2026 | 12% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 18 |
| Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 80 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 32 |
| Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 142 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
