How many countries will experience 10 or more cases of poliovirus in 2017?
Started
Jul 18, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC
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Outcome determined by the total cases of polio, both wild (WPV) and vaccine circulated (cVDPD), reported by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. War and political instability have undermined polio eradication efforts in Africa and the Middle East, with new human cases of polio emerging in countries that had previously eradicated the disease (Washington Post, The Guardian).
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Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of The Congo, and Syria experienced 10 or more cases of poliovirus in 2017. This question closed as "three" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of The Congo, and Syria experienced 10 or more cases of poliovirus in 2017. This question closed as "three" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | |
| 3 | 99% | |
| 4 | 1% | |
| 5 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 132 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 569 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
