Started Jul 21, 2017 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2018 07:59PM UTC

The Mack Institute asks

Before 1 January 2018, will the U.S. President sign legislation increasing the number of autonomous vehicle exemptions allowed by the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards?

A motor vehicle manufacturer may petition the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for an exemption in order to sell self-driving vehicles without human controls, but only for up to 2,500 vehicles per year (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Reuters). The U.S. House of Representatives is considering a bill that would allow U.S. regulators to exempt up to 100,000 vehicles a year per manufacturer from these rules. Proponents say it would liberate innovation for self-driving vehicles. Opponents say that 100,000 vehicles per year, multiplied by up to 30 autonomous vehicle developers, would constitute full deployment without the requisite safety precautions.

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Name Probability
No 76%
Yes, but to less than 100,000 exemptions per manufacturer per year 20%
Yes, to 100,000 or more exemptions per manufacturer per year 5%

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