The Mack Institute asks

Before 1 January 2018, will the U.S. President sign legislation increasing the number of autonomous vehicle exemptions allowed by the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards?

Started Jul 21, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 06:00PM UTC

A motor vehicle manufacturer may petition the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for an exemption in order to sell self-driving vehicles without human controls, but only for up to 2,500 vehicles per year (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Reuters). The U.S. House of Representatives is considering a bill that would allow U.S. regulators to exempt up to 100,000 vehicles a year per manufacturer from these rules. Proponents say it would liberate innovation for self-driving vehicles. Opponents say that 100,000 vehicles per year, multiplied by up to 30 autonomous vehicle developers, would constitute full deployment without the requisite safety precautions. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
The U.S. President did not sign legislation increasing the number of autonomous vehicle exemptions allowed by the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Question clarification
Issued on 10/17/17 08:52pm
The year an exemption is expected to take effect under otherwise qualifying legislation is immaterial to the resolution of the question. Phased in exemptions will count, and the relevant bin (b or c) will be determined by the maximum number of exemptions defined in the legislation.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
No 95%
Yes, but to less than 100,000 exemptions per manufacturer per year 5%
Yes, to 100,000 or more exemptions per manufacturer per year 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 226
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 421
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.089
3.
-0.089
4.
-0.088
5.
-0.088

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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