Will the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Israel that starts between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017, inclusive?
Started
Aug 09, 2017 04:45PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2017 03:59AM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2017 03:59AM UTC
Challenges
The question will resolve as "yes" if the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset records any event with a start date (Start Month, Start Day, Start Year) between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017, inclusive, for which 'Event Location: Country' is: ISR (Israel), and 'Perpetrators: Perp State Role' is: Multiple Perpetrators (Non-State); Non-State, Internal, No State Sanction; Transnational, Non-State; or Unknown/Unclear/Other. Question will be suspended on 31 August 2017 and resolved when the August data is released, typically in mid-September via the .zip file which begins with January 2016.
The Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Dataset did not record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Israel between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017. This questions closed as "b) No," with and end date of 1 October 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
The Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Dataset did not record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Israel between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017. This questions closed as "b) No," with and end date of 1 October 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 1.00% | |
No | 99.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 197 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 215 | |
Number of Forecasts | 324 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 605 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |