Started Aug 09, 2017 04:45PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 01, 2017 03:59AM UTC

Will the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Israel that starts between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017, inclusive?

Challenges

The question will resolve as "yes" if the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset records any event with a start date (Start Month, Start Day, Start Year) between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017, inclusive, for which 'Event Location: Country' is: ISR (Israel), and 'Perpetrators: Perp State Role' is: Multiple Perpetrators (Non-State); Non-State, Internal, No State Sanction; Transnational, Non-State; or Unknown/Unclear/Other. Question will be suspended on 31 August 2017 and resolved when the August data is released, typically in mid-September via the .zip file which begins with January 2016.


The Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Dataset did not record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Israel between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017. This questions closed as "b) No," with and end date of 1 October 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Final Crowd Forecast

1%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

197

Forecast
Count

324

Crowd Brier Score

0.0018


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.006
2.
-0.006
3.
-0.006
4.
-0.006
5.
-0.006

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