The Mack Institute asks

Before 1 July 2018, will Waymo launch a driverless transportation service open to the public?

Started Nov 17, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 13, 2018 05:00PM UTC

Alphabet's self-driving car company, Waymo, recently announced the testing of its driverless vehicles in Arizona and the planned launch of a driverless transportation service (Medium, Wired, Bloomberg, Ars Technica). A service offered to participants in Waymo's Early Rider Program (Waymo) will count. The presence of a safety operator inside the vehicles does not impact the resolution of this question, as long as that operator is not in the driver's seat. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Waymo has launched a driverless transportation service open to the public via the Early Rider program (Fortune, Tech Crunch. This question closed as "yes" with an end date of 13 March 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Question clarification
Issued on 12/04/17 04:07pm
Posted 4 December 2017: The Early Rider Program in its current capacity does not constitute "a driver-less transportation service open to the public" and is not considered sufficient for resolution.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 15.00%
No 85.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 370
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 547
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.672721
2.
-0.672721
3.
-0.672521
4.
-0.672181
5.
-0.671984

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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