The Economist asks

Will there be a new king of Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2018?

Started Nov 21, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

After the appointment of Mohammed bin Salman as Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, recent developments have raised questions concerning the future of the kingdom. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 October 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman 4%
Yes, someone else 0%
No 96%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 836
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1911
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.192
2.
-0.19
3.
-0.189
4.
-0.189
5.
-0.188

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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