Started Dec 15, 2017 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC

  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2019?

A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, or law enforcement of either side. China has been using People's Liberation Army, Navy, and Air Force, militia, and law enforcement to further its claims in both the South and East China Seas, and some have been posing as fishermen (South China Morning Post, Reuters, The Guardian, Center for Strategic and International Studies, The Diplomat).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


Name Probability
Yes 15%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In