The Economist ask

How many times will the Federal Open Market Committee raise the federal funds rate between 7 March and 30 September 2018?

Started Mar 07, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2018 06:59AM UTC
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The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Investopedia). The target for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee. The FOMC has meetings scheduled throughout the year, and there is internal debate about how quickly to raise rates (The Federal Reserve, The Federal Reserve, NY Times). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
The FOMC raised rates three (3) times in the relevant time period. This question closed as "3" with an end date of 1 October 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2 0%
2 5%
3 95%
4 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 397
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 1282
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.284
2.
-0.277
4.
-0.266
5.
-0.263

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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