Started Apr 11, 2018 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2020 07:59PM UTC

Before 1 January 2020, will a NATO member formally invoke Article 4 or Article 5 of the Washington Treaty in response to actions taken by Russia?

Article 4 has been invoked a few times in the history of NATO (NATO, Radio Free Europe). Article 5 has been invoked just once (NATO, NY Times). If Article 4 or Article 5 is invoked for an event in which the perpetrator is initially unknown and NATO subsequently attributes that event to Russia, the question will close retroactively with the end date of the invocation.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


Tags
Challenges
Name Probability
Yes 2%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In