Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed by the Senate before 6 November 2018?

Started Jul 11, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 06, 2018 05:00PM UTC
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On 27 June, Justice Anthony Kennedy announced that he would retire from the Supreme Court effective 31 July (The Hill, SCOTUSBlog).  On 9 July, President Trump announced Judge Brett Kavanaugh as his choice to replace Justice Kennedy (Reuters).  Sen. Charles Grassley, Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, has said that there will be "plenty of time to confirm a nominee before the Supreme Court resumes hearing cases in October. (Radio Iowa)." See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated. This question closed as "yes" with an end date of 6 October 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 90.00%
No 10.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 171
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 670
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.013
2.
-0.013
3.
-0.013
4.
-0.013
5.
-0.013

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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