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The Economist asks:

Will the US FDA approve a drug used to reverse the effects of Alzheimer's disease on the brain and/or approve a vaccine to prevent Alzheimer's disease as of 2035?

80%

Chance
173 Forecasters • 202 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2021 03:00AM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

How many opioid overdoses resulting in death will occur in the US in 2026?

104 Forecasters • 156 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2021 03:00AM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 25,000
0%
Between 25,000 and 40,000, inclusive
14%
More than 40,000 but fewer than 55,000
29%
Between 55,000 and 70,000, inclusive
41%
More than 70,000
16%
The Economist asks:

When will the first human have lived for 180 consecutive Earth days on or under the surface of the moon?

183 Forecasters • 241 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2021 03:00AM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Before 2030
5%
Between 2030 and 2039
38%
Between 2040 and 2049
36%
Not before 2050
21%
The Economist asks:

How many RNA vaccines and therapeutics for humans will be FDA-approved as of 2031?

123 Forecasters • 186 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2021 03:00AM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 10
6%
Between 10 and 100, inclusive
67%
More than 100 but fewer than 250
23%
Between 250 and 500, inclusive
4%
More than 500
0%
The Economist asks:

Will the Nobel Foundation announce that artificial intelligence has won or would be eligible to win a Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine before 2036?

3%

Chance
173 Forecasters • 216 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2021 03:00AM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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