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In United States v. Tsarnaev, will the Supreme Court reinstate the death sentence imposed against Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev?

70%

Chance
35 Forecasters • 43 Forecasts
Started Sep 10, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 31 March 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?

65 Forecasters • 96 Forecasts
Started Sep 10, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 31, 2022 07:01AM UTC
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Lower than 40.0%
7%
Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive
30%
Higher than 45.0% but lower than 50.0%
44%
Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive
18%
Higher than 55.0%
1%

What will be the US producer price index for Internet advertising sales in June 2022?

17 Forecasters • 31 Forecasts
Started Sep 03, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
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Lower than 60.0
2%
Between 60.0 and 66.0, inclusive
21%
Higher than 66.0 but lower than 72.0
35%
Between 72.0 and 78.0, inclusive
29%
Higher than 78.0 but lower than 84.0
10%
84.0 or higher
3%
asks:

When will the Scottish government officially request discussions on or agreement to a Section 30 order from the UK government that would enable the Scottish government to call a new independence referendum?

72 Forecasters • 105 Forecasts
Started Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
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Before 1 January 2022
2%
Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022
23%
Between 1 July 2022 and 31 December 2022
36%
Not before 1 January 2023
39%
asks:

Will Sir Keir Starmer face a formal challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party before 4 April 2022?

10%

Chance
74 Forecasters • 110 Forecasts
Started Aug 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 04, 2022 07:01AM UTC
asks:

Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022?

10%

Chance
64 Forecasters • 99 Forecasts
Started Aug 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will the 14-day average of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California next reach or exceed 12,000?

52 Forecasters • 200 Forecasts
Started Aug 06, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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Before 15 September 2021
0%
Between 15 September 2021 and 31 October 2021
1%
Between 1 November 2021 and 15 December 2021
7%
Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022
12%
Not before 1 February 2022
80%
Private Superforecasting Workshop and belikewater ask:

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?

102 Forecasters • 213 Forecasts
Started Aug 06, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 12, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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A two-week period ending 25 September 2021 or earlier
0%
A two-week period ending between 9 October 2021 and 20 November 2021
0%
A two-week period ending between 4 December 2021 and 15 January 2022
6%
A two-week period ending between 29 January 2022 and 12 March 2022
16%
Not before 12 March 2022
78%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases will be reported to the CDC as of 10 January 2022?

55 Forecasters • 151 Forecasts
Started Aug 06, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 10, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 6,000
29%
Between 6,000 and 12,000, inclusive
55%
More than 12,000 but fewer than 18,000
16%
Between 18,000 and 24,000, inclusive
0%
More than 24,000 but fewer than 30,000
0%
30,000 or more
0%
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