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Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?

0%

Chance
815 Forecasters • 1380 Forecasts
Started Oct 30, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The Economist, the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) and WBHumanoid ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?

1%

Chance
446 Forecasters • 1346 Forecasts
Started Aug 28, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?

269 Forecasters • 1181 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022
0%
Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022
1%
No
99%

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?

1%

Chance
197 Forecasters • 1122 Forecasts
Started Jul 31, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Tim Harford asks:

What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?

151 Forecasters • 1074 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than $75 billion
27%
Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive
68%
More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion
5%
Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive
0%
More than $150 billion
0%
Tim Harford asks:

When will the 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases in the UK next fall below 15,000?

153 Forecasters • 995 Forecasts
Started Jul 21, 2021 02:27PM UTC
Closing Dec 18, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 11 September 2021
0%
Between 11 September 2021 and 29 October 2021
0%
Between 30 October 2021 and 17 December 2021
0%
Not before 18 December 2021
100%
Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?

3%

Chance
177 Forecasters • 983 Forecasts
Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?

105 Forecasters • 934 Forecasts
Started Dec 31, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 1.500
0%
Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive
58%
More than 2.000 but less than 2.500
42%
Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive
0%
More than 3.000
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?

5%

Chance
204 Forecasters • 875 Forecasts
Started Feb 10, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?

186 Forecasters • 801 Forecasts
Started Jan 29, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
0
99%
1
1%
2
0%
3 or more
0%
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