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Will Russia deliver an S-300 or S-400 missile system to Iran before 1 January 2016?

100%

Chance
437 Forecasters • 1425 Forecasts
Started Sep 01, 2015 04:37PM UTC
Closed Nov 23, 2015 02:00PM UTC

What will be the unemployment rate in Australia for August 2020?

204 Forecasters • 795 Forecasts
Started Mar 27, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC
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Less than 7.5%
1%
Between 7.5% and 9.0%, inclusive
90%
More than 9.0% but less than 10.5%
2%
Between 10.5% and 12.0%, inclusive
0%
More than 12.0%
0%

What will be the U.S. domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for the next James Bond film No Time to Die?

280 Forecasters • 711 Forecasts
Started Dec 13, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 27, 2020 08:01AM UTC
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No Time to Die will gross as much or less than Spectre ($70,403,148)
70%
No Time to Die will gross more than Spectre but less than Skyfall ($88,364,714)
15%
No Time to Die will gross as much or more than Skyfall
9%

What will U.S. holiday season retail sales be for 2020 relative to the 2019 holiday season?

217 Forecasters • 607 Forecasts
Started Jun 26, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
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Lower by more than 12.0%
0%
Lower by between 8.0% and 12.0%, inclusive
15%
Lower by more than 4.0% but less than 8.0%
23%
Lower by between 0.0% and 4.0%, inclusive
20%
Higher by more than 0.0%
0%
The Mack Institute asks

Before 1 January 2020, will EV Rater list a full-electric vehicle with a range of 420 miles or more?

10%

Chance
254 Forecasters • 541 Forecasts
Started Mar 08, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

On 1 March 2021, how many states will report a COVID-19 fatality rate of 5.0% or higher?

146 Forecasters • 456 Forecasts
Started Aug 18, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
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Zero
99%
Between 1 and 5
1%
Between 6 and 10
0%
Between 11 and 15
0%
16 or more
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?

3%

Chance
110 Forecasters • 442 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

On 1 March 2021, how many states will report a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?

103 Forecasters • 388 Forecasts
Started Aug 18, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
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3 or fewer
20%
Between 4 and 7
16%
Between 8 and 11
12%
Between 12 and 15
10%
16 or more
16%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will the percentage of adults in US households that are teleworking because of the coronavirus pandemic fall below 18.0%?

88 Forecasters • 279 Forecasts
Started Jun 24, 2021 09:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 09, 2021 08:01AM UTC
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Before 6 July 2021
0%
Between 6 July 2021 and 16 August 2021
0%
Between 17 August 2021 and 27 September 2021
0%
Between 28 September 2021 and 8 November 2021
9%
Not before 9 November 2021
90%
The Economist asks:

When will the first human have lived for 180 consecutive Earth days on or under the surface of the moon?

187 Forecasters • 255 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2021 03:00AM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Before 2030
4%
Between 2030 and 2039
34%
Between 2040 and 2049
35%
Not before 2050
27%
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