Status

Type

Sort By

How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 28 February 2021, according to the CDC?

169 Forecasters • 732 Forecasts
Started Feb 03, 2021 07:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 28, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 50,000,000
98%
Between 50,000,000 and 53,000,000, inclusive
2%
More than 53,000,000 but fewer than 56,000,000
0%
Between 56,000,000 and 59,000,000, inclusive
0%
More than 59,000,000 but fewer than 62,000,000
0%
Between 62,000,000 and 65,000,000, inclusive
0%
More than 65,000,000
0%

How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week starting 21 February 2021?

79 Forecasters • 242 Forecasts
Started Feb 03, 2021 07:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 27, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 45,000
85%
Between 45,000 and 60,000, inclusive
15%
More than 60,000 but fewer than 75,000
0%
Between 75,000 and 90,000, inclusive
0%
More than 90,000 but fewer than 105,000
0%
Between 105,000 and 120,000, inclusive
0%
More than 120,000
0%

How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?

101 Forecasters • 483 Forecasts
Started Feb 03, 2021 07:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 27, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 14,000
43%
Between 14,000 and 16,000, inclusive
57%
More than 16,000 but fewer than 18,000
0%
Between 18,000 and 20,000, inclusive
0%
More than 20,000 but fewer than 22,000
0%
Between 22,000 and 24,000, inclusive
0%
More than 24,000
0%

How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?

112 Forecasters • 392 Forecasts
Started Feb 03, 2021 07:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 27, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 600,000
100%
Between 600,000 and 750,000, inclusive
0%
More than 750,000 but fewer than 900,000
0%
Between 900,000 and 1,050,000, inclusive
0%
More than 1,050,000 but fewer than 1,200,000
0%
Between 1,200,000 and 1,350,000, inclusive
0%
More than 1,350,000
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election?

41 Forecasters • 92 Forecasts
Started Dec 31, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 28, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 35
0%
Between 35 and 50, inclusive
9%
More than 50 but fewer than 65
91%
65 or more
0%

On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher?

115 Forecasters • 492 Forecasts
Started Dec 23, 2020 10:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Zero
100%
Between 1 and 3
0%
Between 4 and 6
0%
Between 7 and 9
0%
10 or more
0%

On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?

121 Forecasters • 510 Forecasts
Started Dec 23, 2020 10:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
8 or fewer
100%
Between 9 and 15
0%
Between 16 and 22
0%
Between 23 and 29
0%
30 or more
0%
The Economist asks:

Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?

132 Forecasters • 298 Forecasts
Started Nov 27, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Nguyễn Thị Kim Ngân
0%
Nguyễn Xuân Phúc
0%
Trần Quốc Vượng
0%
Someone else
0%
A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021
100%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?

0%

Chance
175 Forecasters • 461 Forecasts
Started Nov 17, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

How can we all, as forecasters, disagree without being disagreeable?

Discuss
36 Commenters • 157 Comments
Started Nov 10, 2020 10:12PM UTC
Closed Jan 15, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel