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When will people in Guangdong no longer be required to show a negative COVID-19 test in order to leave the Chinese province?

37 Forecasters • 152 Forecasts
Started Jun 11, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 12, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Before 11 July 2021
0%
Between 11 July 2021 and 11 August 2021
0%
Between 12 August 2021 and 11 September 2021
0%
Between 12 September 2021 and 11 October 2021
0%
Not before 12 October 2021
100%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will New Zealand's AgResearch report having a net annual financial surplus (pretax) in its 2020/21 fiscal year?

85%

Chance
33 Forecasters • 70 Forecasts
Started May 21, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
CJH asks:

Following the 2021 German Bundestag elections, which parties will be part of the new government?

124 Forecasters • 775 Forecasts
Started Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 26, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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The CDU but not the Green Party
9%
The Green Party but not the CDU
43%
Both the CDU and the Green Party
35%
Neither the CDU nor the Green Party
0%
No government will be formed before 31 December 2021
13%
Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:

What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?

170 Forecasters • 639 Forecasts
Started Mar 17, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Lower than 1.7%
0%
Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive
0%
Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%
0%
Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive
0%
Higher than 3.1%
100%

How can we all, as forecasters, disagree without being disagreeable?

Discuss
36 Commenters • 157 Comments
Started Nov 10, 2020 10:12PM UTC
Closed Jan 15, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Are there any forecasting tips, tricks, and experiences you would like to share and/or discuss with your fellow forecasters?

Discuss
76 Commenters • 547 Comments
Started Sep 04, 2020 07:01PM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2021 06:59AM UTC
The Mack Institute asks:

How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?

178 Forecasters • 546 Forecasts
Started Aug 21, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 25,000
79%
Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive
20%
More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000
0%
Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive
0%
More than 250,000
0%
The Mack Institute asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?

148 Forecasters • 484 Forecasts
Started Aug 14, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service
24%
Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package
0%
Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service
11%
No
46%
The Mack Institute asks:

Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?

117 Forecasters • 404 Forecasts
Started Aug 14, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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0
0%
1 or 2
30%
3 or 4
15%
5 or 6
0%
7 or more
0%
The Mack Institute asks:

Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?

125 Forecasters • 340 Forecasts
Started Jul 10, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, a firm
8%
Yes, a paid backup driver
2%
Yes, both
1%
No
75%
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