Status

Type

Sort By

Econja2018 asks:

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?

1%

Chance
175 Forecasters • 276 Forecasts
Started Feb 10, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Tim Harford asks:

Will US print book sales in 2021 exceed those in 2020?

18%

Chance
86 Forecasters • 124 Forecasts
Started May 07, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?

80%

Chance
223 Forecasters • 708 Forecasts
Started Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Columbus asks:

Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022?

2%

Chance
57 Forecasters • 74 Forecasts
Started Apr 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?

1%

Chance
105 Forecasters • 330 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?

236 Forecasters • 600 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, only by the FDA
0%
Yes, only by the EMA
2%
Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA
0%
No
98%
The Economist asks:

Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?

15%

Chance
120 Forecasters • 288 Forecasts
Started Mar 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Balzac asks:

Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?

97%

Chance
199 Forecasters • 412 Forecasts
Started Nov 13, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the US announce a reduction or elimination of total punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber before 1 September 2021?

70%

Chance
38 Forecasters • 45 Forecasts
Started May 14, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?

1%

Chance
142 Forecasters • 394 Forecasts
Started Jan 29, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel