Status

Type

Sort By

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will New Zealand's AgResearch report having a net annual financial surplus (pretax) in its 2020/21 fiscal year?

85%

Chance
33 Forecasters • 70 Forecasts
Started May 21, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?

132 Forecasters • 887 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021
0%
Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021
0%
Not before 18 September 2021
100%

How can we all, as forecasters, disagree without being disagreeable?

Discuss
36 Commenters • 157 Comments
Started Nov 10, 2020 10:12PM UTC
Closed Jan 15, 2021 05:00PM UTC
024_andrew and The Economist ask:

Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?

0%

Chance
591 Forecasters • 1871 Forecasts
Started Sep 18, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Are there any forecasting tips, tricks, and experiences you would like to share and/or discuss with your fellow forecasters?

Discuss
76 Commenters • 547 Comments
Started Sep 04, 2020 07:01PM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2021 06:59AM UTC
The Mack Institute asks:

How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?

178 Forecasters • 546 Forecasts
Started Aug 21, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 25,000
79%
Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive
20%
More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000
0%
Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive
0%
More than 250,000
0%
The Mack Institute asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?

148 Forecasters • 484 Forecasts
Started Aug 14, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service
24%
Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package
0%
Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service
11%
No
46%
The Mack Institute asks:

Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?

117 Forecasters • 404 Forecasts
Started Aug 14, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
0
0%
1 or 2
30%
3 or 4
15%
5 or 6
0%
7 or more
0%
The Mack Institute asks:

Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?

125 Forecasters • 340 Forecasts
Started Jul 10, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, a firm
8%
Yes, a paid backup driver
2%
Yes, both
1%
No
75%
The Mack Institute asks:

How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?

84 Forecasters • 408 Forecasts
Started Jul 10, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 2.2 million
0%
Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive
0%
More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million
0%
Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive
16%
More than 4.0 million
75%
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel