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Econja2018 asks:

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?

1%

Chance
180 Forecasters • 317 Forecasts
Started Feb 10, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Tim Harford asks:

Will US print book sales in 2021 exceed those in 2020?

38%

Chance
126 Forecasters • 254 Forecasts
Started May 07, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Columbus asks:

Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022?

2%

Chance
62 Forecasters • 100 Forecasts
Started Apr 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will the US Truck Tonnage Index reach or exceed 120.0 before 1 January 2022?

20%

Chance
34 Forecasters • 44 Forecasts
Started Jun 25, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?

1%

Chance
115 Forecasters • 368 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?

247 Forecasters • 693 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, only by the FDA
0%
Yes, only by the EMA
1%
Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA
0%
No
99%
The Economist asks:

Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?

18%

Chance
139 Forecasters • 390 Forecasts
Started Mar 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Tim Harford asks:

Will the US civilian labor force participation rate reach or exceed 63.0% for any month in 2021?

11%

Chance
69 Forecasters • 133 Forecasts
Started May 28, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the US announce a reduction or elimination of total punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber before 1 September 2021?

4%

Chance
52 Forecasters • 108 Forecasts
Started May 14, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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