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How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 June 2021, according to the CDC?

51 Forecasters • 137 Forecasts
Started Jun 02, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 175,000,000
0%
Between 175,000,000 and 185,000,000, inclusive
100%
More than 185,000,000 but fewer than 195,000,000
0%
Between 195,000,000 and 205,000,000, inclusive
0%
More than 205,000,000 but fewer than 215,000,000
0%
Between 215,000,000 and 225,000,000, inclusive
0%
More than 225,000,000 but fewer than 235,000,000
0%
235,000,000 or more
0%

How many people will have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US as of 30 June 2021, according to the CDC?

61 Forecasters • 288 Forecasts
Started Jun 02, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 145,000,000
0%
Between 145,000,000 and 155,000,000, inclusive
25%
More than 155,000,000 but fewer than 165,000,000
75%
Between 165,000,000 and 175,000,000, inclusive
0%
More than 175,000,000 but fewer than 185,000,000
0%
Between 185,000,000 and 195,000,000, inclusive
0%
More than 195,000,000
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will New Zealand's AgResearch report having a net annual financial surplus (pretax) in its 2020/21 fiscal year?

85%

Chance
33 Forecasters • 70 Forecasts
Started May 21, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Terry-Smith and 024_andrew ask:

Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?

150 Forecasters • 728 Forecasts
Started Mar 19, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 22, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Eric Adams
61%
Scott Stringer
0%
Maya Wiley
8%
Andrew Yang
15%
Someone else
16%
The Economist asks:

What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?

294 Forecasters • 951 Forecasts
Started Nov 27, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Less than 5.0%
0%
Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive
1%
More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%
17%
Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive
47%
More than 8.0%
35%
The Economist asks:

How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?

248 Forecasters • 738 Forecasts
Started Nov 27, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 150,000
0%
Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive
0%
More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000
5%
350,000 or more
95%
Balzac asks:

Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?

98%

Chance
200 Forecasters • 440 Forecasts
Started Nov 13, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

How can we all, as forecasters, disagree without being disagreeable?

Discuss
36 Commenters • 157 Comments
Started Nov 10, 2020 10:12PM UTC
Closed Jan 15, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Adam Grant asks:

What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?

291 Forecasters • 904 Forecasts
Started Oct 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Less than 2.00%
96%
Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive
4%
More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%
0%
Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive
0%
More than 8.00%
0%

Are there any forecasting tips, tricks, and experiences you would like to share and/or discuss with your fellow forecasters?

Discuss
76 Commenters • 547 Comments
Started Sep 04, 2020 07:01PM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2021 06:59AM UTC
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