Status

Type

Sort By

Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?

1%

Chance
705 Forecasters • 1187 Forecasts
Started Oct 30, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) and WBHumanoid ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?

2%

Chance
374 Forecasters • 1183 Forecasts
Started Aug 28, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?

252 Forecasters • 1065 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022
0%
Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022
9%
No
91%

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?

3%

Chance
183 Forecasters • 1021 Forecasts
Started Jul 31, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?

10%

Chance
154 Forecasters • 829 Forecasts
Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Tim Harford asks:

What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?

137 Forecasters • 817 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than $75 billion
35%
Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive
55%
More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion
10%
Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive
0%
More than $150 billion
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?

10%

Chance
191 Forecasters • 774 Forecasts
Started Feb 10, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Tim Harford asks:

When will the 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases in the UK next fall below 15,000?

124 Forecasters • 735 Forecasts
Started Jul 21, 2021 02:27PM UTC
Closing Dec 18, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 11 September 2021
0%
Between 11 September 2021 and 29 October 2021
1%
Between 30 October 2021 and 17 December 2021
23%
Not before 18 December 2021
76%

What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?

92 Forecasters • 714 Forecasts
Started Dec 31, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 1.500
1%
Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive
40%
More than 2.000 but less than 2.500
58%
Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive
1%
More than 3.000
0%

How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?

177 Forecasters • 691 Forecasts
Started Jan 29, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
0
95%
1
5%
2
0%
3 or more
0%
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel