Good Judgment® Open

Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?

2%

Chance

48 Forecasters • 64 Forecasts

Started Jul 09, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022?

85%

Chance

41 Forecasters • 83 Forecasts

Started Jun 30, 2021 09:00PM UTC

Closing Apr 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 July 2022, will the US impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic?

7%

Chance

80 Forecasters • 108 Forecasts

Started Jun 24, 2021 09:00PM UTC

Closing Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Before 1 January 2022, will the US Intelligence Community publicly state that a laboratory accident is a more probable scenario for the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic than it having emerged naturally through contact with infected animals?

5%

Chance

189 Forecasters • 317 Forecasts

Started Jun 11, 2021 10:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?

74 Forecasters • 184 Forecasts

Started Apr 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

77%

21%

3 or more

Tolga asks:

Will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person before 1 August 2021?

91 Forecasters • 261 Forecasts

Started Apr 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Yes, in either Russia or Ukraine

Yes, somewhere other than Russia or Ukraine

100%

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?

0%

Chance

69 Forecasters • 138 Forecasts

Started Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Adam Grant and Tim Harford ask:

What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?

151 Forecasters • 502 Forecasts

Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Less than 8,000 tb/d

Between 8,000 tb/d and 8,500 tb/d, inclusive

More than 8,500 tb/d but less than 9,000 tb/d

Between 9,000 tb/d and 9,500 tb/d, inclusive

83%

More than 9,500 tb/d

13%

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?

77 Forecasters • 238 Forecasts

Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Less than 2.00%

12%

Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive

72%

More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%

16%

3.00% or more

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?

5%

Chance

110 Forecasters • 271 Forecasts

Started Mar 26, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Sep 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC

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Type

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Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?

2%

Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022?

85%

Before 1 July 2022, will the US impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic?

7%

Before 1 January 2022, will the US Intelligence Community publicly state that a laboratory accident is a more probable scenario for the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic than it having emerged naturally through contact with infected animals?

5%

Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?

Will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person before 1 August 2021?

Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?

0%

What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?

What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?

Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?

5%

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Type

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2%

85%

7%

5%

0%

5%