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In United States v. Tsarnaev, will the Supreme Court reinstate the death sentence imposed against Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev?

70%

Chance
32 Forecasters • 37 Forecasts
Started Sep 10, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

What will be the 7-day average number of new cases of COVID-19 in Louisiana for the week ending 20 October 2021?

30 Forecasters • 37 Forecasts
Started Sep 10, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 20, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 1,500
26%
Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive
51%
More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500
21%
Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive
2%
More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500
0%
7,500 or more
0%

What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 31 March 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?

53 Forecasters • 71 Forecasts
Started Sep 10, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 31, 2022 07:01AM UTC
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Lower than 40.0%
9%
Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive
46%
Higher than 45.0% but lower than 50.0%
39%
Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive
6%
Higher than 55.0%
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How far will the UAE national football team advance in the FIFA Arab Cup 2021?

19 Forecasters • 21 Forecasts
Started Sep 10, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 18, 2021 08:01AM UTC
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Group Stage
38%
Quarterfinals
47%
Semi-finals (3rd or 4th Place)
14%
Finals (1st or 2nd Place)
1%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How much cash on hand will the following three Donald Trump-affiliated political action committees (PACs) have combined as of 31 December 2021?

24 Forecasters • 33 Forecasts
Started Sep 10, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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Less than $100 million
0%
Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive
61%
More than $150 million but less than $200 million
29%
$200 million or more
10%

Will the rate of new daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100k people in Massachusetts be higher on 19 October 2021 than it was on 7 September 2021?

37 Forecasters • 64 Forecasts
Started Sep 08, 2021 04:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 19, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Yes, having first fallen below 18.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts
4%
Yes, but without having first fallen below 18.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts
27%
No, having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts
24%
No, but without having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts
45%
Tim Harford asks:

How many job openings in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2021?

32 Forecasters • 55 Forecasts
Started Sep 03, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 1.4 million
0%
Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive
2%
More than 1.6 million but fewer than 1.8 million
4%
Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive
22%
More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.2 million
24%
2.2 million or more
48%

What will be the US producer price index for Internet advertising sales in June 2022?

16 Forecasters • 27 Forecasts
Started Sep 03, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
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Lower than 60.0
6%
Between 60.0 and 66.0, inclusive
22%
Higher than 66.0 but lower than 72.0
34%
Between 72.0 and 78.0, inclusive
23%
Higher than 78.0 but lower than 84.0
11%
84.0 or higher
4%
Tim Harford asks:

How many twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo will the Port of Los Angeles report for November 2021?

32 Forecasters • 54 Forecasts
Started Sep 03, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 800,000
3%
Between 800,000 and 900,000, inclusive
25%
More than 900,000 but fewer than 1,000,000
55%
1,000,000 or more
17%

How many business applications will be made in the US in 2021?

25 Forecasters • 44 Forecasts
Started Sep 03, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 4.8 million
1%
Between 4.8 million and 5.2 million, inclusive
4%
More than 5.2 million but fewer than 5.6 million
58%
Between 5.6 million and 6.0 million, inclusive
34%
More than 6.0 million
3%
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