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In United States v. Tsarnaev, will the Supreme Court reinstate the death sentence imposed against Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev?

68%

Chance
34 Forecasters • 41 Forecasts
Started Sep 10, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

What will be the 7-day average number of new cases of COVID-19 in Louisiana for the week ending 20 October 2021?

32 Forecasters • 42 Forecasts
Started Sep 10, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 20, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 1,500
24%
Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive
52%
More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500
20%
Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive
3%
More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500
1%
7,500 or more
0%

What will be the total value of assets under management by global sustainable funds at the end of 2021, according to Morningstar?

35 Forecasters • 48 Forecasts
Started Sep 03, 2021 04:00AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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Less than $2,250 billion
0%
Between $2,250 and $2,500 billion, inclusive
4%
More than $2,500 but less than $2,750 billion
26%
Between $2,750 and $3,000 billion, inclusive
36%
More than $3,000 billion but less than $3,250 billion
20%
$3,250 billion or more
2%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will happen next to the United Arab Emirate's rolling 7-day average of confirmed cases of COVID-19?

53 Forecasters • 100 Forecasts
Started Aug 31, 2021 07:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 12, 2021 08:01AM UTC
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The 7-day average will reach 1,500 or higher
18%
The 7-day average will reach 500 or lower
61%
Neither will occur before 12 November 2021
21%
asks:

When will the Scottish government officially request discussions on or agreement to a Section 30 order from the UK government that would enable the Scottish government to call a new independence referendum?

70 Forecasters • 102 Forecasts
Started Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
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Before 1 January 2022
4%
Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022
24%
Between 1 July 2022 and 31 December 2022
35%
Not before 1 January 2023
37%
asks:

Will legal restrictions on the number of people who can meet indoors be imposed in England before 1 January 2022?

22%

Chance
130 Forecasters • 208 Forecasts
Started Aug 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Amazon.com begin to accept any cryptocurrency for purchases on the US site before 1 October 2022?

20%

Chance
155 Forecasters • 263 Forecasts
Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?

65 Forecasters • 127 Forecasts
Started Jul 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 1 October 2021
0%
Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021
0%
Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022
0%
Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022
1%
Not before 1 April 2022
99%
Tim Harford asks:

When will the 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases in the UK next fall below 15,000?

111 Forecasters • 592 Forecasts
Started Jul 21, 2021 02:27PM UTC
Closing Dec 18, 2021 08:01AM UTC
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Before 11 September 2021
0%
Between 11 September 2021 and 29 October 2021
10%
Between 30 October 2021 and 17 December 2021
35%
Not before 18 December 2021
55%

When will 600 million people in India have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?

66 Forecasters • 384 Forecasts
Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 12, 2021 08:01AM UTC
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Before 1 September 2021
0%
Between 1 September 2021 and 24 September 2021
97%
Between 25 September 2021 and 18 October 2021
3%
Between 19 October 2021 and 11 November 2021
0%
Not before 12 November 2021
0%
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