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Are there any forecasting tips, tricks, and experiences you would like to share and/or discuss with your fellow forecasters? [2022 Thread]

Discuss
14 Commenters • 21 Comments
Started Jan 18, 2022 11:30PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Will employees at Amazon's Bessemer, Alabama, warehouse vote in the affirmative to unionize in their next scheduled election?

14%

Chance
57 Forecasters • 82 Forecasts
Started Jan 14, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 25, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Bernard Zimmermann asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will the US officially rejoin the JCPOA?

15%

Chance
51 Forecasters • 66 Forecasts
Started Jan 14, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Before 1 January 2023, will North Korea launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?

40%

Chance
54 Forecasters • 76 Forecasts
Started Jan 14, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Before 4 January 2023, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?

71 Forecasters • 110 Forecasts
Started Jan 14, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 04, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023
21%
Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023
8%
No
71%

Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev either flee Kazakhstan or cease to be its president before 7 July 2022?

8%

Chance
129 Forecasters • 204 Forecasts
Started Jan 07, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 07, 2022 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 1 October 2022?

5%

Chance
112 Forecasters • 133 Forecasts
Started Jan 07, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Will total fire activity in the Amazon for January through September 2022 exceed the total for January through September 2021?

65%

Chance
95 Forecasters • 123 Forecasts
Started Jan 07, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

What will be the FAO Food Price Index for June 2022?

99 Forecasters • 147 Forecasts
Started Jan 07, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 120.0
3%
Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive
23%
More than 130.0 but less than 140.0
46%
Between 140.0 and 150.0, inclusive
23%
More than 150.0
5%

What forecasting questions should we ask? What questions would you like to forecast on GJOpen?

Discuss
17 Commenters • 31 Comments
Started Jan 04, 2022 10:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2022 07:01PM UTC
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